Gold
Gold prices edged up by 0.31% on Tuesday, closing at $2,632.79 per ounce, as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon eased with a ceasefire agreement, dampening safe-haven demand.
However, concerns over trade tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict provided support, helping gold recover from a one-week low of $2,605.13 per ounce.
According to Xinhua News, Israel’s Security Cabinet approved a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah on Tuesday night by a vote of 10 to 1. The agreement, brokered by the United States and France, is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time on November 27. It includes a 60-day initial ceasefire, during which Israeli forces will withdraw from Lebanon, while Hezbollah will relocate its weapons north of the Litani River, away from the UN-designated border.
Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, remarked, “While the ceasefire may slightly ease overall geopolitical risks, broader market concerns persist, especially regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold is likely to remain range-bound between $2,575 and $2,750 in the near term.”
Further fueling geopolitical concerns, Russia’s Ministry of Defense stated on November 26 that Ukraine had used US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to attack air defense installations in Russia’s Kursk region twice in three days. The ministry warned of impending retaliatory measures.
Meanwhile, market focus shifted to former President Trump’s proposed tariff plan. Although the US Dollar Index briefly rose to 107.55 on the news, it pared gains to close with a smaller increase.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes indicated gradual rate cuts, providing modest support for gold prices.
Key Events to Watch Today: Investors should monitor the revised US GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 and the October Core PCE Price Index data. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, US initial jobless claims data, usually released on Thursdays, will be published a day earlier. Geopolitical developments and updates on Trump’s policies also warrant attention.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Gold retraced early in the Asian session, briefly breaking below $2,610 before rebounding. The European session saw a second dip to test support near $2,610, followed by a recovery.
By the US session, gold surged to test resistance at $2,640 but closed with a pullback, forming a doji candlestick. While gold is stabilizing above $2,600, it remains capped below $2,650, suggesting a bearish consolidation.
Today’s Focus:
- Recommended Strategy: Focus on short positions during rebounds, with buying opportunities on pullbacks.
- Resistance Levels: $2,645–$2,650.
- Support Levels: $2,615–$2,610.
Oil
Crude oil prices dipped on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions eased with the impending Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement. Despite an early rally of nearly 2%, driven by discussions of delayed OPEC+ production increases, oil prices reversed gains as the ceasefire weighed on market sentiment. WTI crude futures settled 0.25% lower at $68.77 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell 0.27% to $72.81 per barrel.
The agreement between Israel and Lebanon, mediated by the US and France, will take effect on Wednesday. During the Asian session, Israeli military airstrikes on Beirut briefly lifted oil prices. However, confirmation of the ceasefire erased gains by the end of the day.
OPEC+ is set to meet on Sunday to discuss potential adjustments to its January production plans. Reports suggest the group is considering delaying previously scheduled production increases. According to sources, OPEC+ members are weighing whether to extend current production cuts until March 2025 to avoid oversupply.
John Kilduff, an analyst at AgainCapital, noted, “While the OPEC+ meeting and Trump’s tariff plans provided temporary support, the ceasefire overshadowed these factors, keeping WTI crude below $70 per barrel.”
Adding to market dynamics, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant drop in US crude inventories. Stocks fell by 5.935 million barrels last week, compared to an expected increase of 250,000 barrels. This offered some support to prices but failed to offset broader bearish sentiment.
Key Events to Watch Today: Investors should keep an eye on US EIA crude oil inventory data and geopolitical updates, particularly regarding the Middle East.
Technical Analysis:
Oil prices initially rallied to test $70 during the European session before retreating sharply. The US session saw further declines, with prices breaking below $69 and settling near $68. The daily candlestick formed a doji, indicating indecision. Oil remains under pressure near the $71 resistance level, suggesting a continuation of bearish consolidation.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Oil prices initially rallied to test $70 during the European session before retreating sharply. The US session saw further declines, with prices breaking below $69 and settling near $68. The daily candlestick formed a doji, indicating indecision. Oil remains under pressure near the $71 resistance level, suggesting a continuation of bearish consolidation.
Today’s Focus:
- Recommended Strategy: Prioritize selling into strength, with potential buying opportunities on dips.
- Resistance Levels: $70.0–$70.5.
- Support Levels: $68.0–$67.5.
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Disclaimer
This information contained in this blog is for general reference only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. It does not consider any specific recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation. Past performance references are not reliable indicators of future performance. Doo Prime and its affiliates make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses or damages resulting from its use or from any investments made based on it.
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